What makes a war “great”? Its conclusion or its beginnings?
A shot heard round the world started the ‘Great American War’. Less than 150 years later the assassination of a Duke kicked off the first Great War. The invasion of Poland by a madman set the stage for the second, but The next ‘Great War’ will start with your lights going out and no one will hear a sound.
“If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected .”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Small skirmishes leading up to this war have already begun. The combatants not solely the superpowers, but every technologically advanced nation in between. It begins with the erosion of trust and ends with the crippling of infrastructure. Going forward, I’ll focus on the United States and prospective dystopian like series of events I think could play out. What indicators I think can show it has already begun, and the main actors with a role to play. Unsurprisingly China, U.S.A, and Russia take center stage. In appearance progress toward greater stability and world peace seem inevitable, but of course, human nature is unavoidable.There are still wars to come.
Right now we are in a war of information. The battleground the information superhighway. Few people thought that an attack on our democracy would begin with adverts on Facebook and memes on Twitter, but the fight for your attention was not entirely expected to be the next arena in the evolution of warfare. With globalization, everything changes, including the game.
Our greatest strength lies in truth and the speed at which knowledge can be spread. Our great failure in misinformation and technological illiteracy. Discord and discourse have always been common among democracy’s features, but when you can’t agree that a pencil will fall when it rolls off a table or that energy is the force that propels motion, then you have reached an age where being right doesn’t matter anymore. Democracy’s nose becomes crooked, and while still recognizable, is hardly the same. To quote Frank Underwood from his final season “Welcome to the death of the age of reason, there is no right or wrong, not anymore. There is only being in – and then being out.” It’s hard to know who is winning, it depends on who you are reading and what you are believing. This is the war of information, but there is something more sinister still unseen.
There is the war of direct assault. This comes in the form of blatant Cyber attacks. Staged against institutions, corporations, people, and pit governments against each other. Although their origin is often hard to pinpoint. Their skill, knowledge, and intent are often clear, and at the highest levels, their sophistication is undeniable. The goal often to obtain information, cripple the intended targets capabilities, or simply expose a weak point for further or future attack. These melees happen every day behind closed doors. The US government has now blamed Russia for numerous cyberattacks on its energy, aviation, and other sectors in recent years – evidence of just how significantly cyber warfare has come to define the manner in which some governments threaten and spar with each other(1). As I stated, these small skirmishes cost no life, but are the lead up to what may ultimately be their crescendo. A Full-scale technological assault on infrastructure. The type of conflict that requires great skill and once the initial dust settles the enemy tears itself apart from within.
For the technologically uninitiated, which includes me. The ways they do this are quite simple. hackers can plant malware, by doing something as simple as sending an email containing a job application to companies or institutions. As is often the case for mechanical failure, there is a major human component. The fault lies mainly in the eyes between this screen and the chair. It’s the fault of employees who click on certain links, open suspicious emails or participate in other unwise activities that open up a computer’s vulnerabilities; however, that isn’t always the case.
The first major example of a state using a cyber weapon for offensive purposes in the oddly named Stuxnet malware attack that took place on Iran. (2) This was an attack coordinated by the U.S and it’s western allies to infiltrate Iran’s nuclear program. it worked, it worked too well. This malware used something called a zero-day exploit. it’s a term for a piece of code that allows a virus or piece of malware to spread without a user having to do anything. For example, having to download a file. it’s an attack that only the attacker knows about, there is no protection against such malware containing such coding. zero-day exploits, the line of code themselves, are becoming more and more common, when once in a while it would only be one line of code in a single case of malware infection. there are cases now having four or more lines of code in malware. If a piece of malware were to be encoded with A.I capabilities, that is a terminator like a scenario I won’t even get in to; however, when it comes to nations battling for power. Advanced weapons only breed further advancement, and that is why you see things escalating with the ease and unpredictability of major institutions being breached by hackers in an ever-increasing frequency. A slow and steady climb to the bottom. Cybersecurity is our main defense, it’s game of tag, an endless game of cat and mouse, a hacker breaches a system while security professionals attempt to defend a computer system from attack by applying continuous patches. (1). New holes in defenses are constantly exposed and consistently exploited.
As technological advancement creeps, further along, everything from our sewage plants to street lights run on software. We become complacent, unsuspecting, and vulnerable to the dire effects of a complete system collapse. Assume a worst case scenario, the silent strike I’ve been alluding to, something out of the movie “Red Dawn”. Taking place on our infrastructure. Radio and satellite communication is gone. The electrical grid infiltrated at every level from federal to state. The unquestionable bedrock from which our civilization is now built on. Gone in an instant from a multi-nation coordinated attack against the United States from countries like China, Russia, and their allies. perhaps on purpose, perhaps by some piece of runaway code. The United States would not just be crippled but brought to its very knees. We wouldn’t even know the kill shot took place until long after we hit the ground.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
How would you survive if the country lost all electrical and communications abilities for not just months or years, but perhaps indefinitely? It’s a thought I’m sure some have had, but no one can truly imagine. the word ‘disaster’ can be hyperbole, maybe it’s just an understatement. The only thing I know for certain when it comes to the major powers. The true wars of attrition are over, there is only the war of annihilation left. Certainly, the military has thought out such scenarios and marshal law would prevail in some way, but how can you ever be so sure when envisioning the future. It’s an unlikely scenario, but one with devastating consequences if even it’s moderate side effects were to take place. With so many millions of people dependent on electricity for food, water, and fuel. Governmental mismanagement could lead to civil unrest and a complete collapse from within as people struggle to survive in a nation of nearly half a billion people struggling to supply itself with the daily necessities of life.
We are living in abnormal times, which is probably the same thing they say every forty years before they forget and say it again. Times change and life only appears to get weirder. The only constant change. Technology will continue to disrupt life, and despite the pessimistic tone thus far, I’m quite optimistic and welcoming to that disruption. The speed and ease of life increases, but just like a speeding luxury train. the faster you go the worse a sudden stop will jolt its passengers. A globally destructive piece of malware, a blockade on the tracks, and everything we have come to know and love could be gone. We could be sent flying from our seats and sent back to the 1800’s. We’ll have to exit the train we’ve come to enjoy so much if we survive and learn to walk again. Our next great frontier, our next great war. won’t be a space war. it will be a cyber one. and it will be over before we know it.
please if you liked what I have said let me know. if you disagree slightly or strongly, let me know.
Again thank you so much
and thanks for reading.
References:
1: https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/03/25/cyberwarfare-against-critical-infrastructure/
2: https://www.csoonline.com/article/3218104/malware/what-is-stuxnet-who-created-it-and-how-does-it-work.html
3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfHd6bZjVTw
Bond's Blurbs 